The CSIRO together with Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation has just published a comprehensive document called Rural Industry Futures: Megatrends Impacting Australian Agriculture over the Coming Twenty Years. The paper identifies five ‘Megatrends’ predicted to impact on the Australian agriculture sector over the next twenty years.
Five Megatrends for Australian agriculture in the next 20 years:
1. A hungrier world.
By 2050, there will be 70 per cent or 2.3 to 2.4 billion more people on earth, who will need 60 to 70 per cent more food than what’s currently available.
2. A wealthier world.
Increasingly, wealthier consumers in developing economies will drive demand for more and diverse foods. In Asia alone, with over 1 billion people expected to move out of poverty as average incomes rise from US$12,000 to US$44,000 per person by 2060, beef consumption is predicted to rise 120 per cent, while dairy consumption will double by 2050.
3. Choosier customers.
Empowered by information, the consumers of 2050 are likely to expect food to be nothing less than healthy, nutritional, clean, green and ethically produced.
4. Transformative technologies.
Advanced digital, genetic and materials science technologies will enable farmers to improve how they produce food and fibre products, while innovative sensory systems and data analytics will create highly integrated ‘farm to fork’ supply chains. Farmers will be able to make better decisions and manage risk more effectively, while consumers will have greater access to trace the origins of their food, putting production methods under the spotlight.
5. A bumpier ride.
Australian rural industries can expect a changed risk profile, which will call for new and deeper levels of resilience to withstand shocks associated with climate change, environmental change and globalisation.
One minor criticism of the research is that none of the trends are especially new or surprising. Government, media and others have been discussing each of these issues for many years. The impact of environmental change and new technology and the need to feed the world (think food bowl of Asia) are all well-worked topic areas.
However, bringing these mega-trends together in a compelling document with a specific focus on the impact of these on Australian agriculture makes for a valuable addition.
The megatrends identified in the research bode well for Australian farmers and those in regional rural areas. Clearly Australian farmers will play a major role in feeding the world and are well placed adapt and adopt as required.
The research also supports a contention that Redhanded has been arguing for some time. That is, that we may be witnessing a ‘Regional and Rural Australian Renaissance’.
For decades, Australians’ have been migrating towards the coast and cities, creating a highly urbanised population. But are we at a point where this trend might slow or even reverse?
Even a cursory look at Melbourne or Sydney paints a picture of two cities where road and rail infrastructure is struggling to cope with growing populations, urban sprawl and congestion.
Add to this a housing affordability crisis, a lack of spending on infrastructure and governments that are cash-strapped—and our major cities look less ‘liveable’.
From a ‘pull factor’ perspective, regional and rural areas offer lifestyle benefits and the opportunity for governments to relocate departments and instrumentalities at lower cost than building the required metro infrastructure. Our own research supports this and even anecdotally, we see a rise in ‘tree-changers’, ‘sea-changers’ and significant growth in farmer’s markets and trends towards provenance purchasing.
In summary, the Rural Industry Futures research is a solid and valuable contribution, if not identifying any ‘brand new’ trends. This research coupled with our own insights points towards a healthy future for regional and rural Australia.
The full report can be found here.
Lachlan Drummond is Redhanded’s Strategic Director.